It’s Joe…..
2 min readMar 7, 2020
- No one can win the Democratic nomination without the African-American vote. Bernie isn’t getting it.
- No one has won either the Democratic nomination or the Presidency on the basis of youth voters. Bernie promised to bring them out; they didn’t.
- Bernie lost primaries in states in which he previously beat Hilary Clinton. Failing to win those states in 2020 means that his previous victories were at least somewhat more about voters being against Hilary than being for Bernie.
- In 2020, Bernie has ONLY twice won 40% or more of the vote (Vermont and Nevada). Winning by large margins leads to superior delegate totals; ties do not lead to a delegate advantage. In a two-man race, the African-American vote coupled with ties among all other voters leads to Joe winning the nomination.
- Bernie isn’t getting the same white/non-college educated vote as he did against Hilary. Those votes are largely going to Joe.
- Bernie gets very little by being endorsed by Elizabeth Warren who likely adds few voters to Bernie’s coalition. From her perspective, supporting Bernie takes her out of the VP contest if Joe is the nominee (with an implicit promise to secure the progressive wing of the party). It’s in her interest to support the Democratic nominee but only when there is a nominee. In other words, Bernie can’t expect a lot from Warren in the primaries.
- White suburban women favor every Democratic nominee over Trump by 10% or more — except Bernie Sanders who ties with Trump for their support. In a party that wants to beat Trump above all other goals, white suburban women will join with African-Americans and select Joe.
- In eighteen primary elections and caucuses (where Bernie is 5–13), Bernie’s revolution hasn’t delivered the millions of votes he predicted would support him. Game over.
